FOMC in the Rear-View Mirror; NFP Eyed
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- May 2, 2024
The update from May’s FOMC rate announcement proved more dovish than expected, which naturally weighed on the US dollar (sending the DXY to lows of 105.44) and US yields, as well as, initially at least, underpinning major US equity indices. The FOMC left the Fed funds target rate unchanged for a sixth consecutive session at
READ MOREIt is pretty much a sealed deal that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold the line tomorrow at 6:00 pm GMT, keeping its overnight benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for a sixth consecutive meeting. While there is no update for economic projections at this meeting, you will recall from the last policy-setting meeting
READ MOREWell, another week has passed, and the prospect of the Fed cutting rates this year is becoming more remote. Highlights last week include the US GDP first estimate slowing more than expected for Q1 to an annualised rate of 1.6%, far surpassing economists’ estimates of 2.5% and the Atlanta GDPNow model’s estimate of 2.7% real
READ MOREUS GDP, according to the first estimate (or ‘advance estimate’) for real GDP growth, revealed a HUGE miss and stresses a cooling economy. According to the Commerce Department, US economic activity slowed significantly in Q1 of 2024, increasing at an annualised rate of 1.6%. This fell considerably short of economists’ estimates of 2.5% (the estimate
READ MOREThe path for future interest rates in the US remains uncertain, with some Fed officials even talking about the possibility of rate hikes if inflation continues to increase. From six rate cuts to less than two (-39bps), the hawkish repricing in the swaps market for the Fed funds target rate this year has reinforced a
READ MOREYY Headline: 3.2% (Est: 3.1%; Prev: 3.4%) MM Headline: 0.6% (Est: 0.4%; Prev: 0.6%) YY Core: 4.2% (Est: 4.1%; Prev: 4.5%) MM Core: 0.6% (Est: 0.5%; Prev: 0.6%) The March UK CPI numbers hit the wires earlier this morning, revealing a slower-than-expected pace of disinflation across all four key metrics. While all four reports
READ MOREFollowing today’s mixed bag of employment and wages data, tomorrow’s attention is directed to the March UK CPI inflation release, scheduled to air at 7:00 am GMT+1. Estimates Suggest Further Disinflation Both headline and core (excludes food, energy, tobacco and alcohol) measures have surprised to the downside in the previous two releases and are expected
READ MORECanada’s March inflation is expected to rise to 2.9%, potentially impacting a June rate cut. US retail sales beat forecasts, keeping the not-so-soon rate cut story. USD is buoyed by the Chinese authorities, allowing a lower yuan. Good morning to all our readers! Yesterday was dominated by US retail sales data; retail sales rose 0.7%
READ MOREEarlier this morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest UK earnings and employment data, and it was largely a mixed print overall. UK Unemployment Jumps to 4.2% UK unemployment climbed to 4.2% from December 2023 to February 2024, up from 3.9% in the three months to January 2024. This marks the largest
READ MOREIt was quite the week! Top of the bill last week, of course, was the stronger-than-expected US CPI inflation print, which, immediately following the release, underpinned the dollar and US Treasury yields, as well as pushed spot gold (XAU/USD) and US equity index futures southbound. Interestingly, a hawkish repricing in the Fed funds target rate
READ MORERates Remain on Hold The European Central Bank (ECB) claimed the spotlight in recent trading and held all three key benchmarks unchanged; the main refinancing operations rate, the marginal lending facility rate, and the deposit facility rate remain at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively. This did not raise too many eyebrows as both markets and
READ MOREData came in broadly higher than expected for the March US CPI inflation print. Higher-Than-Expected Reports on Three of the Four Major Prints Year-on-year headline CPI inflation for March rose +3.5%, up from +3.2% in February and a touch higher than economists’ estimates of +3.4%. Of note, this follows a rise of +3.4% in December
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